Clarksburg, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

646
FXUS61 KRLX 301514 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1014 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain tonight into Friday with the next low pressure
system. Dry Saturday and Sunday. Unseasonably mild Sunday/Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 1010 AM Thursday...

Updated sky cover this morning into the afternoon hours to
better reflect current satellite trends.


As of 315 AM Thursday...

Key Points:
* Quiet this morning, system brings rain this evening into tonight.
* Flood Watch begins late tonight for portions of northeast WV and
  the WV mountains.

High pressure supports quiet conditions through the morning, then
slides east as a system approaches from the southwest later today.
Cloud cover will gradually increase through out the day, then rain
spreads from south to north across the area this evening into the
night while the low gravitates towards the Great Lakes region.

Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain are expected to fall later today
and tonight, with the best potential for over an inch of rain
spanning portions of southern and central WV, northeast KY, and far
southeast OH. While much of the area resides in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall, flooding concerns are greatest for portions of
northeast WV and the WV mountains. In that area, the combined
effects of rain and snowmelt may lead to more widespread problems as
well as causing rivers and streams to rise.

Southerly flow sets in and brings warmer air into the area, allowing
temperatures to rise above normal. Highs should range from 50 to 60
degrees in the lowlands, while upper 30s to low 50s are expected for
the mountains. Lows should remain in the 40s in the lowlands and 30s
to low 40s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...

Key Points:

 * Low pressure system exits northeast Friday with rain showers
   lingering across northeast mountains into Friday night.

 * A Flood Watch remains in effect across the West Virginia
   mountains through Friday afternoon, due to the combination of
   snowmelt and expected rainfall.

 * Cold front follows the exodus of the low, to bring drier
   air and seasonal temperatures Saturday and Saturday night.


A surface low pressure centered over the OH Valley this morning,
will cross our area, exiting northeast by Friday evening. Meanwhile,
a cold front drops south across the area Friday night into Saturday
morning. These two features will keep widespread rainfall across the
lowlands through Friday evening, tapering off along the northeast
mountains towards midnight.

Nearly saturated terrain and snow cover continue to hold considerable
amount of water, especially over the mountains. Additional rainfall
over these areas and temperatures in the upper 40s, will aid to release
that water and produce flooding issues. Therefore, a Flood Watch
continues in effect for the northeast counties including the northern
and central mountains.

WPC has upgraded to a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall roughly where
we have the flood watch in effect, and a marginal risk over
nearby counties. Noticed an uptick in QPF from previous runs,
with much of the area receiving 1.5 to 2 inches, with localized
higher amounts possible depending where the axis of
precipitation develops.

At the moment of writing, two river gauges are projected to reach
or exceed flood stage; the Tygart Valley River at Belington and
at Philippi, which are already in the flood watch. RFC suggests
high rises in the West Fork River at Clarksburg, close of reaching
flood stage. Other streams have projected rises under action
stage for now. Leaning to expand the flood watch, perhaps a tier
of counties east to cover additional streams and rivers from
potential flooding.

In terms of temperatures, 40 to 50 knots winds at H850 will produce
strong WAA on Friday, allowing temperatures to climb into the
lower 60s across NE KY, and portions of SE OH and WV lowlands.
Across the mountains, temperatures should be generally in the
50s. Lows on Friday night will be in the 30s across the
lowlands, ranging into the mid 20s higher elevations.

High pressure builds behind the front on Saturday, providing dry
weather and mostly sunny skies. Cold air behind the front will bring
more seasonal temperatures for Saturday, generally in the 40s across
the lowlands, ranging into the mid 30s northeast mountains. Lows
Saturday night will be a little cooler than Friday, dropping into the
lower 20s across the northeast mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...

The aforementioned high pressure shifts eastward, while zonal
flow prevails aloft on Sunday, providing dry weather. H850 flow
becomes strong (45 to 50 knots) out of the southwest, providing
strong WAA, to bring back the lower 60s across the lowlands,
ranging into the upper 30s highest elevations of our northeast
mountains.

Milder Monday, ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The front
pushes south through Monday night, spreading very light precipitation
across NE KY, SW VA, and the southern coalfields of WV. NBM guidance
suggests mostly dry conditions with this front, with low chance
of precipitation across the south and eastern mountains by Monday
night.

Models keep dry weather for Tuesday under a clean zonal flow aloft. But
beyond Tuesday night, models differ in their solutions. Confidence runs
low on a warm front lifting north Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing
chances for mostly rain. However, due to uncertainties, conditions may
change affecting precipitation types on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 610 AM Thursday...

VFR will continue through the afternoon while cloud cover
gradually increases ahead of a system. Rain spreads northward
across the area this evening into tonight, causing ceilings to
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR overnight. Visibilities are also
expected to lower to MVFR/IFR within rain.

Southerly winds should be light today, then breezy conditions
develop along the mountains as winds begin to strengthen tonight.
LLWS could be possible late tonight before gusts start mixing
down to the surface.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of rain and sub-VFR CIGs/VIS
may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in rain and low stratus on Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     WVZ030>032-039-040-516-518>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...RPY/JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB